What is Win Rate?
The percentage of trades that end in profit — used alongside R:R to determine whether a strategy has a positive expected value.
Win rate is the proportion of your trades that close in profit. On its own it tells you very little — a 70% win rate with a 1:0.5 R:R loses money, while a 35% win rate with a 1:3 R:R is highly profitable.
Formula:
Win Rate = Winning Trades / Total Trades × 100
Win rate and R:R together:
The combination of win rate and R:R determines your expected value (EV) per trade:
EV = (Win Rate × Average Win) − (Loss Rate × Average Loss)
Breakeven win rates by R:R:
| R:R | Minimum Win Rate to Break Even |
|---|---|
| 1:1 | 50% |
| 1:2 | 33% |
| 1:3 | 25% |
| 1:4 | 20% |
| 1:0.5 | 67% |
Why high win rate is a trap:
Many new traders chase high win rates (70%+) by using wide take-profits and tight stop-losses. This produces small, frequent wins and occasional catastrophic losses. A single 1:0.3 R:R loss can wipe out 10 small wins. Focus on positive EV, not win rate in isolation.
Realistic win rates: